3/10/12

Reverse Standings Battle In Motown

Raptors and Pistons hook up in a battle in Detroit where the loser may in fact be the winner in the end. If you subscribe to the whole tank philosophy this is a huge game tonight in Detroit. Vital to who might win or loss regardless could be determined by if Andrea Bargnani returns for the Raptors tonight. Raptors have been hinting at his impending return and with a game tonight, tomorrow and Tuesday it is expected that we will see Andrea back in one of those games. Looks like tomorrow could be the day. So nice of Andrea to make his comeback for the game I am covering. His return could have a major impact on the Raptors lottery odds. The Raptors were 6-7 with him in the line up and have no less than 4 teams with in a half game of each other in the reverse standings. Have a look at how it shakes out.

27th Raptors 13-26
26th Nets 14-27
T-25th Kings 14-26
T-25th Pistons 14-26

Ultimately for me it does not hold a ton of importance. If were not talking top 3 don't really think it matters to much ultimately. Here are some stats on why I really don't care that much about tanking or see the merits in it. The NBA Lottery began in 1985 since that time here are some stats to chew on.

  • Team with Worst Record has won a grand total of 4 times (Only twice since 2000)
  • Team with 5th worst Record has won more times with 5. (Including the Raptors in 2006)
  • To be the 2nd or 3rd worst is the lucky place to be both winning 6 times
  • Orlando Magic won back to back lotteries the 2nd time with just 1.52% Chance.
  • Where the Raptors sit currently 4th Worst has only ever won the lottery once in 1997 for Spurs

For the record the difference between 27th and 24th is 11.9% to 4.3% or a difference of 7.6%. So it is significant but want to break down the NBA Lottery and look for patterns of trends nothing is a lock. Other than the suspect luck that seems to fall for certain teams at just the right time. Derrick Rose winding up in his home-town with Chicago with just a 1.7% chance of happening. The odds for Lebron James to go to Cleveland were much higher with 22.5% chance. In the first lottery the odds were even and Knicks walked away with Patrick Ewing with 14.29% chance.

As much as the fans and media to an extent love to focus on the topic of the lottery and tanking it really is just something to talk about more times than not. The NBA created the Lottery to try and dissuade teams from tanking. It has not dissuaded people from talking about it. One thing I will guarantee you is that not one player on Pistons or Raptors would rather lose than win tonight. Players always want to win at the end of the day. It is easy to sit back and say a team should just try and lose as much as possible. You don't have to live through it the same as players do. If you decide to watch it is no big deal. They have to show up for every game 82 normally but 66 this year. So cheer for Raptors to win or lose but one way or the other this game will have an impact for the people that are tanking their way through this season.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment